Chapter 6 of 9

Chapter 6: Synthesis & Decision Intelligence

The PivotBuddy Protocol, hierarchy of evidence, and the Pivot Compass.

Playbook Chapters
What You'll Learn By the end of this chapter, you'll use the Pivot Compass to decide your next strategic move, understand the different types of pivots, and know how to set "kill criteria" before you start experimenting.

Converging on Truth

You've gathered qualitative insights and quantitative data. Now comes the hardest part: making a decision.

Synthesis is the art of combining disparate data points into a coherent narrative about market reality. It's where most founders stumble—not because they lack data, but because they can't separate signal from noise.

The Mistake

"Our interviews were mixed—some people loved it, some didn't. Let's build it and see what happens."

Result: Months of building, followed by confusing metrics, followed by a pivot that should have happened sooner.

The Discipline

"Our interviews showed mixed results. Let's identify which segment was most excited, run a focused test on them, and make a decision based on the outcome."

Result: Clear signal, confident decision, efficient use of resources.

The Pivot Compass

The Pivot Compass is a mental model for determining your next strategic move based on the evidence you've gathered. It combines Desirability (do they want it?) with Viability (can we make money?).

Scenario Signal Decision Action
Product-Market Fit High Desirability, High Viability Persevere / Scale Double down. Move to MVP stage.
False Positive High Desirability, Low Viability Pivot Business Model They want it, but the economics don't work. Change pricing, segment, or delivery model.
Solution Mismatch Low Desirability, High Pain Pivot Solution The problem is real but your solution doesn't resonate. Redesign your approach.
Dead End No signal anywhere Kill / Restart Accept the data. Archive your learnings. Move to a new opportunity.

Types of Pivots

A pivot isn't failure—it's a strategic course correction based on validated learning. Eric Ries identified several common pivot types:

Zoom-in Pivot

A single feature becomes the whole product.

Example: Flickr started as a game. Photo sharing was just a feature. The feature became the company.

Zoom-out Pivot

The whole product becomes a single feature of something larger.

Example: Your standalone tool might work better as part of a platform.

Customer Segment Pivot

Good product, wrong audience.

Example: Built for enterprise, but SMBs are the ones who actually buy.

Customer Need Pivot

The problem you found wasn't important enough—but a related one is.

Example: Customers don't care about your feature, but they're desperate for something you mentioned in passing.

Platform Pivot

Sometimes you need to change from an application to a platform (or vice versa). This is a major pivot that changes your entire business model. Think: going from a single-player tool to a marketplace.

The Decision Framework

Making a pivot decision requires intellectual honesty. Two cognitive biases will fight against you:

Confirmation Bias

Seeking data that supports what you already believe.

Symptom: "The survey was negative, but I talked to one guy who loved it—let's focus on that!"

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Continuing because you've already invested time and money.

Symptom: "We've spent 3 months on this—we can't stop now!"

The Antidote: Pre-defined Kill Criteria

Define your "Kill Criteria" before you start the experiment. Write it down. Share it with your team.

Example: "If we don't get 10 pre-orders by Friday, we pivot. No exceptions." This prevents moving the goalposts when you fail.

The Kill Criteria Protocol

Use this checklist before every experiment:

Element Description Your Answer
Success Metric What specific number defines success? "10 pre-orders"
Timeframe When does the experiment end? "7 days from launch"
Kill Threshold Below what number do we pivot? "Fewer than 3 signups"
Pivot Options If we fail, what's Plan B? "Try different segment / change price"

Documentation: Your Lean Vault

Always document your learning. A failed experiment is a success if it generates validated learning.

What Goes in the Lean Vault

  • Experiment hypothesis
  • Method and sample size
  • Raw results and data
  • Interpretation and decision
  • What you learned
  • Next experiment planned

What You Walk Away With

  • Pivot Compass: A framework for turning evidence into decisions.
  • Pivot Vocabulary: Understanding of different pivot types and when to use each.
  • Kill Criteria Protocol: Pre-defined thresholds that prevent goalpost-moving.
  • Documentation Habit: A system for capturing learning so nothing is wasted.
Navigate Your Pivot Decision

Use the Pivot Compass to synthesize your evidence and make data-driven pivot/persevere decisions.

Pivot Compass Fit Analyzer
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Works Cited & Recommended Reading
Lean Startup & Innovation Accounting
Assumption Mapping & Testing
  • 7. Invest in Winning Ideas with Assumption Mapping. Miro
  • 10. Testing Business Ideas: Book Summary. Strategyzer
  • 11. Innovation Tools – The Assumption Mapper. Nico Eggert
  • 14. Business Testing: Is your Hypothesis Really Validated? Strategyzer
  • 16. An Introduction to Assumptions Mapping. Mural
  • 17. Assumption Mapping Techniques. Medium
Customer Interviews & The Mom Test
  • 8. Book Summary: The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick. Medium
  • 22. The Mom Test for Better Customer Interviews. Looppanel
  • 23. The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick [Actionable Summary]. Durmonski.com
  • 9. How to Evaluate Customer Validation in Early Stages. Golden Egg Check
Jobs-to-Be-Done Framework
  • 24. Jobs to be Done 101: Your Interviewing Style Primer. Dscout
  • 25. How To Get Results From Jobs-to-be-Done Interviews. Jobs-to-be-Done
  • 26. A Script to Kickstart JTBD Interviews. JTBD.info
Product-Market Fit & Surveys
  • 33. Sean Ellis Product Market Fit Survey Template. Zonka Feedback
  • 34. How to Use the Product/Market Fit Survey. Lean B2B
  • 35. Product Market-Fit Questions: Tips and Examples. Qualaroo
  • 36. Product/Market Fit Survey by Sean Ellis. PMF Survey
Pricing Validation Methods
Smoke Tests & Fake Door Testing
  • 43. Smoke Tests in Market Research - Complete Guide. Horizon
  • 45. Fake Door Testing - How it Works, Benefits & Risks. Chameleon.io
  • 52. High Hurdle Product Experiment. Learning Loop
  • 53. Fake Door Testing: Measuring User Interest. UXtweak
Conversion Benchmarks & Metrics
  • 46. Landing Page Statistics 2025: 97+ Stats. Marketing LTB
  • 47. Understanding Landing Page Conversion Rates 2025. Nudge
  • 49. What Is A Good Waitlist Conversion Rate? ScaleMath
  • 54. Average Ad Click Through Rates (CTRs). Smart Insights
Decision Making & Kill Criteria
  • 57. From Test Results to Business Decisions. M Accelerator
  • 58. Kill Criteria for Product Managers. Medium
  • 59. When to Kill Your Venture - Session Recap. Bundl

This playbook synthesizes research from Lean Startup methodology, Jobs-to-Be-Done theory, behavioral economics, and validation frameworks. Some book links may be affiliate links.