Chapter 0 of 9

Executive Summary

The imperative of evidence-based innovation and avoiding the "Build Trap".

Playbook Chapters
What You'll Learn By the end of this chapter, you'll understand the validation crisis that kills most startups, the difference between opinions and evidence, and how this playbook will guide you from "I think" to "I know."

You've Got a Hypothesis. Now Prove It.

In Playbook 01, you transformed a vague idea into a structured opportunity. You have a Lean Canvas, a target customer, and a value hypothesis. That was the easy part.

Now comes the hard part: finding out if any of it is actually true.

Most founders skip this step. They're excited. They're confident. They want to start building. And that's exactly why most startups fail—not because they couldn't build the product, but because they built the wrong product.

The Build Trap

The Trap

"We shipped 47 features last quarter!"

Output doesn't equal outcomes. You can ship a mountain of code that nobody wants. Velocity without direction is just expensive chaos.

The Escape

"We validated 3 assumptions and invalidated 2. We know exactly what to build next."

Evidence beats activity. One validated assumption is worth more than a hundred features nobody asked for.

The AI Acceleration Problem

With AI tools, building software is faster and cheaper than ever. That sounds great—but it actually makes the problem worse. Now you can build the wrong thing in a weekend instead of six months. The bottleneck isn't "Can we build it?" anymore. It's "Should we build it?" and "Will anyone pay for it?"

What Validation Actually Means

Validation isn't a checkbox you tick off before launch. It's not "I talked to 5 people and they seemed positive." It's not "My mom said it's a great idea."

Real validation means systematically testing the assumptions that could kill your business—and getting evidence strong enough to bet your time and money on.

The Core Question

"Am I deluding myself, or do I have actual evidence that this will work?"

What This Playbook Covers

This is your operational manual for the Validation Stage. Here's what you'll learn:

Epistemological Foundations

Why your intuition lies to you, how to treat your ideas as hypotheses, and the hierarchy of evidence from weak to strong.

Qualitative Discovery

The Mom Test rules for unbiased interviews, Jobs to Be Done theory, and how to extract real insights without leading the witness.

Quantitative Verification

How to design experiments that generate numbers, from landing page smoke tests to concierge MVPs and Wizard of Oz prototypes.

Decision Intelligence

How to analyze your evidence and make the pivot/persevere/kill decision without fooling yourself.

The Hierarchy of Evidence

Not all "validation" is created equal. Here's how different types of evidence stack up:

Evidence Type Strength Example
Verbal Confirmation Weak "Yeah, I'd probably use that."
Reputation Commitment Moderate Introducing you to peers, public endorsement
Time Commitment Strong Joining waitlist, attending demo, beta testing
Financial Commitment Strongest Pre-order, deposit, Letter of Intent

When someone says "I'd buy that," they're giving you the weakest form of evidence. When they actually put down a deposit, that's real validation.

Your Validation Toolkit

Throughout this playbook, we'll reference LeanPivot AI tools that accelerate your validation process:

  • Assumption Mapping: Visualize and prioritize the risks in your business model.
  • Interview Script Generator: Create Mom Test-compliant discussion guides.
  • Experiment Designer: Design valid tests for your riskiest assumptions.
  • Pivot Compass: Analyze your evidence and get AI-powered pivot recommendations.

You don't need these tools to follow this playbook, but they'll help you move faster and stay rigorous.

What You'll Walk Away With

By the end of this playbook, you'll have:

  • A Validated (or Invalidated) Business Model: You'll know which assumptions hold up and which don't.
  • Real Customer Insights: From unbiased interviews, not wishful thinking.
  • Experiment Results: Actual data on customer behavior, not just opinions.
  • A Clear Decision: Pivot, persevere, or kill—based on evidence, not ego.
Start Your Validation Journey

Use our AI-powered Validation tools to map assumptions, design experiments, and make data-driven decisions.

Fit Analyzer Interview Script Generator
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Works Cited & Recommended Reading
Lean Startup & Innovation Accounting
Assumption Mapping & Testing
  • 7. Invest in Winning Ideas with Assumption Mapping. Miro
  • 10. Testing Business Ideas: Book Summary. Strategyzer
  • 11. Innovation Tools – The Assumption Mapper. Nico Eggert
  • 14. Business Testing: Is your Hypothesis Really Validated? Strategyzer
  • 16. An Introduction to Assumptions Mapping. Mural
  • 17. Assumption Mapping Techniques. Medium
Customer Interviews & The Mom Test
  • 8. Book Summary: The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick. Medium
  • 22. The Mom Test for Better Customer Interviews. Looppanel
  • 23. The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick [Actionable Summary]. Durmonski.com
  • 9. How to Evaluate Customer Validation in Early Stages. Golden Egg Check
Jobs-to-Be-Done Framework
  • 24. Jobs to be Done 101: Your Interviewing Style Primer. Dscout
  • 25. How To Get Results From Jobs-to-be-Done Interviews. Jobs-to-be-Done
  • 26. A Script to Kickstart JTBD Interviews. JTBD.info
Product-Market Fit & Surveys
  • 33. Sean Ellis Product Market Fit Survey Template. Zonka Feedback
  • 34. How to Use the Product/Market Fit Survey. Lean B2B
  • 35. Product Market-Fit Questions: Tips and Examples. Qualaroo
  • 36. Product/Market Fit Survey by Sean Ellis. PMF Survey
Pricing Validation Methods
Smoke Tests & Fake Door Testing
  • 43. Smoke Tests in Market Research - Complete Guide. Horizon
  • 45. Fake Door Testing - How it Works, Benefits & Risks. Chameleon.io
  • 52. High Hurdle Product Experiment. Learning Loop
  • 53. Fake Door Testing: Measuring User Interest. UXtweak
Conversion Benchmarks & Metrics
  • 46. Landing Page Statistics 2025: 97+ Stats. Marketing LTB
  • 47. Understanding Landing Page Conversion Rates 2025. Nudge
  • 49. What Is A Good Waitlist Conversion Rate? ScaleMath
  • 54. Average Ad Click Through Rates (CTRs). Smart Insights
Decision Making & Kill Criteria
  • 57. From Test Results to Business Decisions. M Accelerator
  • 58. Kill Criteria for Product Managers. Medium
  • 59. When to Kill Your Venture - Session Recap. Bundl

This playbook synthesizes research from Lean Startup methodology, Jobs-to-Be-Done theory, behavioral economics, and validation frameworks. Some book links may be affiliate links.